Why the Way Foreclosure Is Not on the Way

Written By Erin Alexander

With forbearance plans coming to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures similar to what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are a few reasons why that won’t happen.

There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time

After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.

As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the fear was the pandemic would impact the housing industry in a similar way. Many projected up to 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. In reality, only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 2.2%.

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 1,221,000. That’s far fewer than the 9.3 million households that lost their homes just over a decade ago.

Most of the mortgages in forbearance have enough equity to sell their homes

Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, of the 1.22 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 93% have at least 10% equity in their homes. This 10% equity is important because it enables homeowners to sell their homes and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.

The remaining 7% might not have the option to sell, but if the entire 7% of those 1.22 million homes went into foreclosure, that would total about 85,400 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers for the three years leading up to the pandemic:

  • 2017: 314,220

  • 2018: 279,040

  • 2019: 277,520

The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures that impacted the housing crash 15 years ago. It’s actually less than one-third of any of the three years prior to the pandemic.

The current market can absorb listings coming to the market

When foreclosures hit the market back in 2008, there was an oversupply of houses for sale. It’s exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was over a nine-month supply of listings on the market. Today, that number is less than a three-month supply. Here’s a graph showing the difference between the two markets.

Erin Alexander

At Finally Social we are a marketing one stop shop for Real Estate agents, Mortgage Brokers and Coaches. We create/audit Social Media Platforms, SM Posting, design & maintain websites, email marketing, branding, & logos. Also marketing collateral: custom images, publications, brochures, flyers, postcards, & magazines.

Erin Alexander is the CEO and founder of FinallySocial.com, a social media and online marketing agency that helps business owners to grow their brand, generate quality leads and convert those leads into profits from social media marketing.

With experience in digital advertising experience, Erin's proven strategies, have helped business owners to effectively get in front of the right customers and clients to significantly grow their bottom line.

Finally Social offers website designs to small business owners as well as create or define their social media platform. We also offer individual services: Newsletters, Web Sites, Visual Tours, Postlets, Listing Flyers, YouTube, Follow Up Process, Update sales on Zillow and Trulia, and Referrals.

Being an active member in her community, Erin loves connecting other business owners, referral partners and non-profits in her local community.

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